1. Field of the Invention
The present invention relates to a predicting method, particularly to a population movement predicting method.
2. Description of the Related Art
Population movement is an important social phenomenon, whereby population spreads globally, and whereby civilization propagates and exchanges, and whereby peoples assimilate and fuse. Population movement also correlates with propagation of infectious diseases. Based on the data collected in the outbreak of dengue fever in 2007-2008 in Rio de Janeiro the second largest city of Brazil, Brazilian researchers pointed out that population movement is a key factor of spreading dengue virus. The research urges a new understanding of the epidemiological dynamics of dengue fever.
A U.S. Pat. No. 5,572,221 disclosed a technology to predict the future population movements via comparing the past movement tracks of mobile terminals with the history records. However, the prior art has the following disadvantages: 1. The technology may infringe right of privacy because it needs to collect movement tracks of a great number of individuals and. 2. The technology is limited in usage because it cannot predict the movements occurring in a specified unit time, such as the morning or afternoon rush hours. 3. The technology cannot predict the position distribution after a specified time point because it cannot estimate the residence time of individuals.
Accordingly, the present invention proposes a movement predicting method to overcome the abovementioned problems.